ACTION: Append presentation on Bayesian Methods to the original paper for publication.The chair suggested that the slides from the presentation be published as an appendix along with the paper.Louisa Blackwell, Duncan Elliott and John Bryant presented on Bayesian Methods for Demographic Estimation.EAP174 – Bayesian Methods for Demographic Estimation The panel agreed with the ONS to continue discussions on these options and other assurance questions.ĥ.Orlaith Fraser presented a short options paper on how MARP could be used to assure some of the social survey transformation research.The panel and ONS discussed the mechanism ONS will have for getting agreements for admin linkage to the Longitudinal Study.ONS clarified that the different approaches will feed into the Bayesian Methods for Demographic Accounts to achieve coherence. The panel discussed the ways that ONS will achieve coherence from the multiple hybrid methods with different strengths and the need for a developed integration framework.ACTION: ONS to bring a deep dive into transformation of characteristic statistics such as ethnicity. Becky Tinsley clarified that it is possible to reproduce some topics at a local, multilevel using admin data and suggested coming back to MARP with a deep dive into these statistics. The panel highlighted the need to carefully consider the transformation of social statistics such as income and ethnicity, areas where there may be only limited information.ACTION: The panel suggested that the presentation be published on the MARP UKSA site.The panel suggested that the presentation be published on the MARP UKSA site.Becky Tinsley informed the panel that these patterns may highlight areas of the mid-year estimates’ internal migration methodology that required further exploration. The panel commented on the bimodal distribution in the mid-year populations estimate for a Local Authority with a high concentration of student populations. Becky Tinsley presented on the evidence roadmap to the 2023 Recommendation.ACTION: ONS and MARP to write a working protocol for continuing MARP beyond 2023 Recommendation assurance.If so, future rotation of panel members and the development of a written protocol for its future remit were suggested. The panel questioned whether an expanding role for MARP would mean the panel becoming more embedded within the ONS structure.Sir Ian Diamond and the panel agreed that the efficacy of MARP may be compromised if membership were expanded too much, however Sir Ian Diamond suggested the addition of one extra specialist.The ONS highlighted that it has a forward agenda for future quality deep dives. The panel suggested that future deep dives could be assured by sub-committees, chaired by one of the panel members if needed. The suggestion was for MARP to occasionally undertake “deep dives” into other methodological areas to provide assurance for the National Statistician. Sir Ian Diamond elaborated on the importance of MARP in bringing an additional level of assurance to the ONS to bolster statistical quality. The panel questioned its wider role to assure areas of research additional to the 2023 Recommendation evidence.
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